Punters relying on traditional form factors to find a winner may have been left behind by a new wave of ‘race shapers’, according to a report tabled by wagering data giant Group 1 Extrapolation (G1Ex).

The G1Ex audit found that 63 per cent of next-generation horse racing punters are engaging in a vaguer style of analysis that prioritises loose references to ‘tempo’ and ‘the map’, over the actual form and peak performances of those engaged. 

“It’s become a popular belief that if you’ve got a field of mostly on-pacers but there are one or two that will flop out to the rear early, the clear advantage is with the backmarkers,” said a G1Ex spokesperson. 

“The horses at the tail might be too slow to keep up, but the all-important ‘race shape’ is very much in their favour if the tempo is above standard.”

G1Ex found that the language used by form students and analysts has undergone a significant shift in the last five years.

“Punters aren’t talking directly about track and distance anymore, or even class and weights. The new lexicon is one very much favouring a more abstract and less quantifiable approach to tipping.” 

G1Ex indicated the ‘race shape revolution’ had led to both a spike in pretentiousness and a distinct drop in accountability, but is yet to deliver any measurable improvement in betting outcomes.

Prominent race shaper and punting influencer Dougal Howser welcomed the study’s findings, telling this masthead that the modern day wagering expert simply “doesn’t have the time or attention span” to assess a race “the old fashioned way”.

More to follow.